Aunque parece evidente, es bueno encontrar evidencia cientifica de los efectos a medio plazo de los cambios de la mala planificación del transporte publico y del desarrollo territorial de baja densidad y su efecto sobre el acceso entre las zonas residenciales y de trabajo.. Aunque no es nada que ya no se haya dicho antes en otros sitios, de diferentes formas. (las negritas son mias)
The results confirm that time costs to access jobs by public transport is a determinant of car ownership. The elasticity values for average car ownership are -0.25 for Barcelona and -0.19 for Madrid. Although these values might seem low when computing the elasticities for the four discrete alternatives, we should note that the estimated elasticity for the alternatives of two or more cars ranges from -0.31 to -0.88.
A simulation exercise increasing accessibility to jobs for all residential areas results in a noticeable impact on the probability of owning a car. For instance, for those living in the Barcelona area but outside the central city, increased accessibility translates into a reduction of 32.1–19.1% in the share of households with two or more cars. Such a change would offset the effect of the number of working adults in the sample.
Our findings have direct implications for policy analysis. The metropolitan areas of Barcelona and Madrid have undergone a process of decentralization of population and jobs in a context of weak metropolitan-wide planning. As a result, land-use and transport policies have not been coordinated, leading to a situation where new population and employment locations have developed without regard for any minimum criteria for public transport accessibility outside central cities. Our data show that lack of public transport has led to an increase of car ownership as a response to these deficiencies. Furthermore, our results also show that lower income households are penalized in this environment.